The Obsidian

The Business Desk

Business

Markets, macro, and the corporate stories that move them.

Lead Story

Fresh Highs on Wall Street as Nvidia Rallies and US-China Talks Resume

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed to fresh records on Thursday, lifted by another leg up in Nvidia and renewed optimism around the next round of US-China trade talks.

Business

Wall Street Stops Pricing in Cuts. It's Pricing in Hikes.

After a hot inflation print, futures markets now imply a 37% probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase before year end. The pivot from 'when do they cut' to 'will they hike' has happened in weeks, not months.

Business

An Iran Premium at the Pump, and on the Inflation Print

April CPI rose 3.8%, eroding wage gains for the first time in three years. Energy is doing most of the work, and energy is being priced off a war.

More from the Desk

Producer Prices Jump the Most Since 2022 — and Services Lead

April PPI rose 1.4% on the month, far above forecast. Services inflation accelerated 1.2%, the largest single-month gain in three years. The pipeline of price pressure has not narrowed; it has widened.

The Metal That Quietly Set a Record on AI Demand

Copper hit a new high this week as analysts revised their data-centre demand assumptions upward. Citi told clients to 'chase the move higher' — a phrase the bank does not deploy lightly.

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